Brexit – From ‘B’ to ‘X’

Often our generation don’t remember the fact that the it was not very while ago when we were governed by another small island. An island – made up of England, Scotland, Wales and Ireland (now only north Ireland) – called Great Britain. The British empire in 19^th century was in command of 23% of world’s population and around 24% of geographical area, and its geographical area is equivalent to 4^th largest state of India (Uttar Pradesh). History of Great Britain has been glorious, as well as tumultuous. From the creation of union to creation of one of the 1^st parliamentary democracy, conquest of colonial territory in 1/4^th of the globe, disintegration of mighty empire, messy Irish conflict and a rocky relationship with mainland Europe, there have never been any dull moment. In this blog, I am going to explore a little bit of history that has led to the Brexit drama that we have all been witnessing for last 3 years and also uncover all aspects associated with it. 

Making of the mighty

Let me take you back some 1500 years ago before we move forward to understand the present and future. The origins of the United Kingdom can be traced to the time of the Anglo-Saxon king Athelstan, who in the early 10th century CE secured the allegiance of neighboring Celtic kingdoms and became “the first to rule what previously many kings shared between them,” in the words of a contemporary chronicle. Through subsequent conquest over the following centuries, kingdoms lying farther afield came under English dominion. Wales, a congeries of Celtic kingdoms lying in Great Britain’s southwest, was formally united with England by the Acts of Union of 1536 and 1542. Scotland, ruled from London since 1603, formally was joined with England and Wales in 1707 to form the United Kingdom of Great Britain. Ireland came under English control during the 1600s and was formally united with Great Britain through the Act of Union of 1800. The republic of Ireland gained its independence in 1922, but six of Ulster’s nine counties remained part of the United Kingdom as Northern Ireland.

Ireland

Ninety years ago, Ireland was split in two after people living there went to war against their British rulers. The south became a separate state, now called the Republic of Ireland. But the break-up led to decades of unrest and violence in Northern Ireland, which remained part of the UK. There are two main sides:

• Nationalists or republicans, who are mainly Catholic, believe the north should join a united, independent Ireland.
• Unionists or loyalists, who are often Protestant, think Northern Ireland should stay as part of the United Kingdom.

The period known as 'The Troubles' began in the late 1960s and lasted for nearly 30 years. Thousands of people on both sides were killed by bombs and bullets, while republican groups also launched attacks on England. The Good Friday Agreement (Belfast Agreement) was signed in 1998 and was seen as a major step towards peace in Northern Ireland.

Scotland

The Kingdom of Scotland emerged as an independent sovereign state in the European Early Middle Ages and continued to exist until 1707. By inheritance in 1603, James VI, King of Scots, became King of England and King of Ireland, thus forming a personal union of the three kingdoms. Scotland subsequently entered into a political union with the Kingdom of England on 1 May 1707 to create the new Kingdom of Great Britain.

Scotland’s relations with England have long been difficult. Although profoundly influenced by the English, Scotland has long refused to consider itself as anything other than a separate country, and it has bound itself to historical fact and legend alike in an effort to retain national identity, as well as to the distinct dialect of English called Scots. In 1999 a new Scottish Parliament—the first since 1707—was elected and given significant powers over Scottish affairs. A referendum was conducted in September 2014 on Scottish independence. The majority voted against the proposition, with 55% voting no to independence.

Integration with EU

The EU is an economic and political union involving 28 European countries. It allows free trade and free movement of people, to live and work in whichever country they choose. A monetary union was established in 1999 and came into full force in 2002 and is composed of 19 EU member states which use the euro currency. Britain opted out of the monetary union.

In 1987, Margaret Thatcher signed the Single European Act, which eventually becomes the world’s largest free trade area. In 1992, UK ejected from the Exchange Rate Mechanism, a forerunner to the single currency that limits exchange-rate fluctuations among members. It also negotiates an opt-out from the part of the Maastricht Treaty that would have required it to adopt a common currency. In 2002, twelve EU countries introduce the euro as legal tender. Britain set out five economic tests to be met before it joins. They were not met.

EU Single Market and Custom Union

The EU’s single market is more than a free-trade area. It aims to remove not just the fiscal barriers to trade (tariffs) but the physical and technical barriers (borders and divergent product standards) too by allowing as free movement as possible of goods, capital, services and people. In essence, it is about treating the EU as a single trading territory.

The European Union is also a customs union. It allows free trade between countries inside it and allows imports in to the area by setting common tariffs.

On and Off relationship

The "Inner Six" (Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, West Germany) European countries signed the Treaty of Paris in 1951, establishing the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC). 1957 Treaties of Rome establishing the European Economic Community (EEC) and the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom). In 1967, these became known as the European Communities (EC). The UK attempted to join in 1963 and 1967, but these applications were vetoed by the President of France, Charles de Gaulle. Sometime after de Gaulle resigned as president of France in 1969, the UK successfully applied for EC membership.

In their 42 years in the EU, the British have always been an awkward, Eurosceptical partner. But Britain’s semi-detached status was confirmed by the Maastricht Treaty of 1992, under which Thatcher’s successor, John Major, obtained (together with Denmark) an exemption from the requirement to join the euro.

Referendum

June 23, 2016, a referendum was held and in a result that was totally unexpected, voters chose by a small majority, 51.1% to 48.9%, for Britain to leave the EU. Although the Brexit referendum was non-binding, then-Prime Minister David Cameron’s government, expecting a vote in favor of “Remain,” had promised to honour the result.

In and out: Political uncertainty and leadership crisis

Brexit has cost Britain two Prime Ministers and several ministers. The first casualty was David Cameron who resigned both as Prime Minister and as a Member of Parliament after the unexpected result of referendum. Theresa May Took over as British Prime Minister, but neither Theresa May nor her Government have a clear idea of exactly what they want, apart from a vague "Brexit".  May called an unnecessary general election in order to get a stronger majority for her government in Parliament. She failed. Instead the Conservatives remained the largest party in Parliament, but they lost seats, and no longer had an absolute majority. Next Britain's Foreign secretary, Boris Johnson resigned from May's government. After failing three times to get her withdrawal agreement through Parliament, Theresa May resigned as prime minister on 7th Jun 19. Boris Johnson is currently at the helm of prime minister ship with uncertain future as Britain is again set to go for a poll.

Missing Deadlines

Theresa May promised that “We will deliver Brexit and the United Kingdom is leaving the European Union on 29 March 2019.” But she failed to deliver.

The UK triggered Article 50 on 29 March 2017, which means the UK was due to leave the EU at 11:00 pm on 29 March 2019. The first extension was granted on 21 March 2019. The UK and the EU agreed to extend Article 50 until 22 May 2019. Since then, the UK has asked for three extensions from the EU. Next extension was 31 Oct 2019 which again was missed.

Boris Johnson said he would rather "be dead in a ditch" than ask the EU for another delay, but like May, he too had to finally eat the dust and ask for the extension. The current Article 50 deadline is 31 January 2020.

May’s Brexit Deal

May had concluded deal with EU but she failed to get it ratified by parliament even after trying for three times. Theresa May’s deal consists of two parts: A Withdrawal Agreement covering the terms of the UK’s exit, and a Political Declaration setting out a framework for future relations.

• The legally-binding Withdrawal Agreement would establish a “transition or implementation period”, during which the UK would still have to conform to EU rules.
• A financial settlement (money that UK owes to EU in tune of €40 billion) has to be paid during the transition period.
• Freedom to move and live within the EU and UK would continue during the transition period.
• A “backstop” mechanism to guarantee an open frontier between Northern Ireland in the UK, and EU member the Republic of Ireland.

Conflict Points

The main contention in Brexit deal is the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, which after Brexit will also become the border between the UK and the EU (The republic of Ireland is part of EU). Because of the island’s troubled history, both sides want to avoid a hard border with customs checks that could become a source of friction. The problem has been that, because the prime minister promised in January 2017 to take Britain out of both the EU’s single market (so as not to be an EU “rule-taker”) and the customs union (to allow it to strike its own trade deals around the world), customs and regulatory checks became almost inevitable. Tory Brexiteers and Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) – which has been propping up the government — hate anything which sets Northern Ireland apart from the rest of the United Kingdom.

No Deal Brexits

There have been many talks of Britain leaving EU without any deal. A no-deal Brexit means the UK would leave the European Union (EU) and there would be no agreements in place about what the relationship between the UK and the EU will be like in future. This includes special agreements about how UK and EU companies could work and trade with each other. If a special deal between EU leaders and UK politicians isn't agreed, then the UK could leave the EU with no deal in place. This would be a no-deal Brexit. It's believed a no-deal Brexit could lead to a number of things happening. For example:

• Some border checks could be re-introduced
• Transport and trade between the UK and the EU could be severely affected
• Adults may not be able to drive in EU countries without a special driving license
• It would mean no transition period, which was part of the deal that the former Prime Minister Theresa May was proposing, and was rejected by MPs.

What’s Next

New Boris Johnson' deal

The new protocol negotiated by Boris Johnson replaces the controversial Irish backstop plan in Theresa May's deal. Much of the rest of that deal will remain. Under the deal:

• The whole of the UK will leave the EU customs union. The customs union is an agreement between EU countries not to charge taxes called tariffs on things coming from other EU countries, and to charge the same tariffs as each other on things coming from outside the EU.
• Leaving the customs union means the UK will be able to strike trade deals with other countries in the future.
• Legally there will be a customs border between Northern Ireland (which stays in the UK) and the Republic of Ireland (which stays in the EU), but in practice things won't be checked on that border.
• The actual checks will be on what is effectively a customs border between Great Britain and the island of Ireland, with goods being checked at "points of entry" in Northern Ireland.
• Taxes will only have to be paid on goods being moved from Great Britain to Northern Ireland if those products are considered "at risk" of then being transported into the Republic of Ireland.

The British Parliament has voted to hold a General Election on 12 December. Essentially, elections will be held around the question of Brexit. If the Conservatives come out of the elections with a working majority, Brexit will take place on January 31, or even before. If Labor, the Liberal Democrats and other anti-Brexit parties (Scottish Nationalists, Welsh Nationalists and Greens) win enough seats to form a coalition government, Brexit will be rapidly revoked, or a second referendum will be held.

We have witnessing the ebbs and flow of Brexit drama for last three years. It could be the one of the most historical moment of 21^st century for England and most definitely will be talked about for many years to come and by many generations to come. But hang on, climax is still to come and picture avi baki hai….